Sixty-six days. About nine-and-half weeks.
That’s how long – on average – it takes to form a new habit, according to a highly-cited 2009 behavioral study.¹
Let that sink in. Especially as pandemic-driven shelter-in-place mandates are extended. And especially as we consider the present and future of new technologies, and especially voice assistance.
It was 23 January when the city of Wuhan was locked down in response to COVID-19.²
Nearly ten weeks later – 67 days, to exact, on 30 March – stores in Wuhan began to open. Nearly eleven weeks later – 76 days, on 8 April -- Wuhan residents are being allowed to leave the city if their smartphones show “green” on a special health app.³
Ask yourself what this may mean.
Especially in how we communicate and transact after authorities tell us it’s OK to go back outside.
Professor Scott Galloway tells us that the pandemic is accelerating business and technology transitions already in work.⁴
Behavioral science may tell us that the length shelter-in-place restrictions may cement some of those accelerated transitions into permanent place. Into new habits.
New, voice-based habits.
Here are three places where the arrival of voice value are being accelerated. Right now.
In commerce. As Jason Goldberg, Chief of Commerce Strategy at Publicis wrote recently⁵, the COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly accelerating the transition to digital commerce. Indeed, for many, e-commerce for groceries and essentials is not a choice, but a survival tool.
Many US households are now trying digital grocery services for the first time. Mobile downloads of popular digital grocery apps such as Instacart, Walmart Grocery, and Shipt have surged.
And they – along with Amazon’s Whole Foods grocery delivery – have been overwhelmed by demand.⁶
Meanwhile, and in parallel: we’re about to see the industry-wide, mega-brand growth of membership/subscription services. The leader, of course, is Amazon, with its 112 million U.S. Prime members. Coming soon: Walmart, which will expand its existing grocery-delivery service into a Prime-like set of offerings to be branded as Walmart+.⁷
Yes, services like Prime provide free shipping, as well as a wide range of media services. But at the heart of Prime – and every subscription service – is the absolute ease of the transaction. No entry of credit card data. No entry of shipping information. You’re a member. It’s all on file.
All you have to do is say “yes.”
All which creates a perfect opportunity – a perfect storm -- for the technology that makes it so easy to say yes: voice.
Across those millions of digital grocery households, across those millions of retail subscription households, you’ll now find some 60 million US homes with smart speakers. And roughly 120 million monthly active users of voice assistance.⁸
Remember: sixty-six days. New habits.
In customer and patient service. You’re at home, and you want an answer. A trust-worthy, credible answer.
Yes, you can go on the internet and attempt to wade through the thicket of truths, half-truths, rumor, and outright nonsense. Good luck.
You’d like to talk to someone, somewhere.
But there aren’t enough call centers to handle the demand. Not enough call center operators in enough remote, sheltered-in-place locations to handle the demand.
Not enough health care professionals to handle the demand.
As exampled in China, and as discussed on Dr. Teri Fisher’s recent web forum (https://lnkd.in/g29T6xt,) conversational AI -- either in its IVR form, as through an assistant – is an answer.
An answer to the common questions (and fears) so many of us have. An answer to the spike in voice calls since mid-March. An answer to staffing challenges in a time of sheltering and sickness.
Remember: sixty-six days. New habits.
In the home and in the factory and in the store – because voice is hands-free (and touch-free). ABI Research just published a study⁹ that predicts that voice-control device shipments will grow by nearly 30 percent year-on-year in 2020 – and that’s despite the pandemic-driven economic turn-down.
In ABI’s announcement of the research, ABI Research Director Jonathan Collins noted that “voice has already made significant inroads into the smart home space” and that when combined with smart locks and delivery alerts, voice can significantly advance home security and convenience in a world of digital, ship-to-home commerce.
But hands-free voice is not just for smart homes. As our friend Lawrence YongZhang Lin of the China Netcasting Services Association reported last month on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/first-hand-report-from-china-how-voice-assistance-has-jon-stine/?trackingId=RzfBNyr4kde%2BATXfFYfUOg%3D%3D, _it’s being implemented throughout China as a replacement interface for a button or a screen. Such as in elevators. And public kiosks.
Hands-free voice is also for front-line retail and service employees. The superb firm Theatro (https://www.theatro.com/) turns clipboards and touch-screens into headset-received task instructions.
Remember: sixty-six days. New habits.
The clock is ticking.
We’re the Open Voice Network, an industry association dedicated to making voice assistance worthy of user trust – and doing so through the development and proposal of global technical standards and ethical use guidelines for conversational AI.
Visit us at www.openvoicenetwork.org.
REFERENCES
¹ Lally, van Jaarsveld, Potts, Wardle, “How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world,” European Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 40, Issue 6, 2009; Clear, “How Long Does it Actually Take to Form a New Habit,” jamesclear.com/new-habit, 2019.
²New York Times, 31 March 2020;
³USA Today, 30 March 2020; BBC.com, 24 March 2020.
⁴ Galloway, “No Mercy / No Malice,” 3 April 2020.
⁵ Goldberg, “The Impact Of COVID-19 on U.S. Brands and Retailers,” Forbes.com, 29 March 2020.
⁶ “Amazon’s Whole Foods Grocery Delivery Is Being Overwhelmed by Demand,” Motley Fool, 19 March 2020.
⁷ Statista, January 2020. “Walmart expands delivery subscription program to take on Amazon Prime,” Fortune, 27 February 2020.
⁸ Statista, December 2019. Statista, January 2020, citing NPR-Edison research
⁹. “COVID-19 Pandemic Impact: Germ Control Over Shared Surfaces Will Help Push Near 30% Growth in Smart Home Voice Control,” ABI Research, 1 April 2020; Shein, “COVID-19 pandemic impact pushing smart home voice control devices to predicted 30% growth,” techrepublic.com, 1 April 2020.
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by Jon Stine, Lead, Open Voice Network